According to The Kobeissi Letter, earnings growth explains 79% of the S&P 500’s year-to-date 2025 return, up 24 percentage points year over year, nearly triple the 2023 share, and on track for a second consecutive annual increase in earnings’ contribution (source: The Kobeissi Letter). For crypto traders, IMF research documents that Bitcoin and U.S. equities have exhibited significantly higher return correlations since 2020, implying that equity rallies led by fundamentals such as earnings can coincide with stronger crypto risk appetite (source: International Monetary Fund). This makes upcoming S&P 500 earnings prints and revisions a relevant macro input for BTC and ETH volatility via the cross-asset correlation channel identified by the IMF (source: International Monetary Fund).